April Adjusted MLB odds

Here are my MLB predictions and playoff odds based on one month of play.

AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox: AL E: 70% WC: 10%
2. New York Yankees: AL E: 30% WC: 30%
3. Tampa Bay Rays: AL E: no chance WC: 10%
4. Toronto Blue Jays: AL E: No chance WC: No chance
5. Baltimore Orioles: AL E: No Chance WC: No Chance.

- So far the big story in the east has been the starts by Tampa and Baltimore. Of the two I think Tampa is the one more likely to be legit. I expect Baltimore to fall back down to earth in the next month or two and will probably finish last in the division, although I don't rule out a fourth place finnish. Tampa's pitching is for real, they could well give Tampa their first winning season although they are nothing but a long shot for the Wild Card. Toronto is not as bad as they look, and will probably pass at least the Orioles by season's end, but their slow start has likely cost them any chance at a playoff spot. Yankees have been mediorce as always in April, but they will bounce back and probably steal a playoff spot like they always do. Boston leaves April in great shape and there is no reason to think they wont make it back to the playoffs.

AL C:
1. Detroit Tigers: ALC: 50% WC: 15%
2. Cleveland Indians: ALC: 30% WC: 10%
3. Chicago White Sox: ALC 20% WC: 10%
4. Minnesota Twins: ALC: No Chance WC: No Chance
5. Kansas City Royals: ALC: No Chance WC: No Chance

- The season started with a hot Kansas City start and a cold Detroit start. This is not reflective for the season as a whole. Kansas City has some arms (although they have fallen back to earth) and no bats. Detroit's offense is too good for them not to be competitive, and I don't think their pitching will be that bad in the long run. Minnesota even at 13-14 is not for real, and they could easily finish 5th in the division. Cliff Lee is a great talent for Cleveland, so his start may not be that much of a fluke, and if Cleveland can get Lee, Sabathia, and Carmona all going they should be fine. I'm buying into Chicago. So long as their pitching holds up, they have good enough hitting to make a real run.

AL W:
1. LA Angels: ALW: 70% WC: 5%
2. Oakland A's: ALW: 20% WC: 10%
3. Seattle Mariners: ALW: 10% WC: no chance
4. Texas Rangers: ALW: No chance WC: no chance

-This is the LA Angels division. I don't trust the A's enough to jump on their bandwagon, but they have played so well thus far that I have to give them some chance. The Mariners still have a chance if and only if Felix and Bedard are Gods from here on out. The Rangers suck. The Angels have the best offense and probablly the best rotation and bullpen in the division and the west very well may end up being the most lopsided division in baseball.

NL E:
1. New York Mets: NLE: 40% WC: 10%
2. Philledelphia Phillies: NLE: 30% WC: 15%
3. Atlanta Braves: NLE: 25% WC: 10%
4. Flarida Marlins: NLE: 5% WC: 5%
5. Washington Nationals: NLE: no chance WC: No chance

-Florida is in first a mounth in. Don't believe it. Not every player on this team is a prospect, and unless something real strange happens they should fall behind NY, Atlanta, and Philly by season's end. Washington started 3-0 and have since fallen to the worst reccord in the NL. Braves have been lackluster, but they have the pieces to comeback. At one moment you think the Mets will start to put some distance on the other teams, and the next they lose any ground they had. The Phillies look decent, even with a slow start from Howard.

NLC:
1. Chicago Cubs: NLC: 50% WC: 10%
2. Milwaukee Brewers: NLC: 30% WC: 10%
3. St. Louis Cardinals: NLC: 20% WC: 10%
4. Cincinnati Reds: NLC: no chance WC: no chance
5. Houston Astros: NLC: no chance WC: no chance
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: NLC: no chance WC: no chance

- There are clearly two haves of this division. Of the lower half only Cincy has a future in the next few years, and will probably have a good month or two this year. Houston has too many roster fillers in a division that is really not as bad as its reputation the last few years. Pittsburgh is just a mess and I will go out on a limb and say they will eventually reach twenty straight loseing seasons. I don't think St. Louis is a fluke and have never understood why people thought they were so bad at the begining of the year. Milwaukee has a lot of talent, but you just feel they will fall apart at some point this year. Finnaly the Cubs are the clear favorite, with no glaring weaknesses I can see, but we can always wait for the playoffs for them to reach the playoffs to fall apart, so we can listen to more curse crap for another year.

NL W:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: NLW: 70% WC: 10%
2. LA Dodgers: NLW: 25% WC: 10%
3. Colorado Rockies: NLW: 5% WC: 5%
4. San Diego Padres: NLW: no chance WC: no chance
5. San Francisco Giants: NLW: no Chance WC: no chance

- How can you not take the Diamondbacks at this point. If you hear anyone criticize the Diamondbacks at this point, they are full of shit. No one else in the division has done much. The Dodgers are the closest, but have probably underachived thus far. The Giants pitching is for real, but they probably have the least talented offense in baseball. No the Rockies are not this bad, and I expect them to get back around .500 by seasons end, but this start will probably prevent them from being a playoff team again. Nothing really to say about San Diego, they could be a 65 win team or a 85 win team, either way they wont be relevant.

Playoff predictions:

Division series:
LA Angels over New York in 5
Boston over Detroit in 4
Arizona over Philly in 4
NY Mets over Chicago in 3

Championship series:
Boston over LA Angels in 5
NY Mets over Arizona in 6

World Series:
BOston over NY Mets in 4

AL CY Young so far: Cliff Lee
AL MVP so far: Manny Ramirez
AL Rookie of the Year: David Murphy

NL CY Young so far: Brandon Webb
NL MVP so far: Chase Utley
NL Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto