Connecticut Democrats
Chris Dodd, Sen, Ranking: 4, Helps Obama with experience, but is boring as hell and has ethical issues.
John Larson: Rep CT-1, Ranking: 4, A centrist, but has only been in Congress since 2000.
Joe Courtney: Rep CT-2, Ranking: 3, A newbie to Congress that does not help Obama in any area.
Rosa DeLauro: Rep CT-3, Ranking: 3, Probably too liberal to be placed on the ticket.
Connecticut Republicans
Jodi Rell: Gov, Ranking: 7, Rell would be one of the stronger picks for VP McCain could make. Rell probably would give McCain a decent boost with woman and very well could deliver Connecticut to McCain.
John Rowland: Former Gov, Ranking: 1, Would have been a strong choice had it not been for a recent stint in prison.
Joe Lieberman: Sen, Ranking: 6, A good FU pick that could help with independents and Jews, but does little to help with the base.
Chris Shays: Rep CT-4, Ranking: 4, First elected to Congress in 1986, but has struggled to hold an increasingly liberal seat.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Colorado VP Rankings
Colorado Democrats
Bill Ritter: Gov, Ranking: 5, Ritter has solid Democratic credentials and would likely flip Colorado to the Democrats if put on the ticket. Ritter's main weakness is that he has served even less time than Obama in a major office.
Ken Salazar: Sen, Ranking: 5, Like Ritter Salazar is very popular in Colorado, but Salazar was first elected in the same year as Obama.
Patricia Schroeder: Former Rep, Ranking: 6, Although Schroder has been out of Congress for 12 years, she is still a viable choice. She had been a Congress woman for over twenty years and is popular in some feminist circles, and she still has some name rec. in Colorado.
Mark Udall: Rep Co-2, Ranking: 3, Would be credible, but is running for Senate instead.
John Salazar: Rep CO-3, Ranking: 4, Why take John if you can have Ken?
Ed Perlmutter: Rep CO-7, Ranking: 4, If Obama wants a Coloradoan he has many better options.
Colorado Republicans
Bob Beauprez: Former Rep, Ranking: 4, The former congressman may be able to help McCain a little in what could end up as a very important state, but other than that Beauprez is a fairly weak vp candidate. He only served two terms in office and was recently creamed in an open Governor's race.
Wayne Allard: Sen, Ranking:6, Allard has served in the Congress since 1997 and before that was in Congress since 1991. Allard would give McCain a huge boost in Colorado and would help with McCain's independent image due to Allard's strong environmental record.
Hank Brown: Former Sen, Ranking: 4, Brown has been out of the political picture for over a decade now, but may help McCain in Colorado.
Gale Norton: Former Secretary of the Interior, Ranking 3, Norton served in the Bush cabinet for five years, which could help McCain with executive experience, but also tie him closer to the unpopular Bush Presidency.
Bill Owens: Former Gov, Ranking: 7, Owens would secure Colorado for McCain and he would be a solid all around candidate. Owens does have a few problems with the base on taxes however.
Marilyn Musgrave: Rep CO-4, Ranking: 4, Musgrove may be from a swing state, but is not widely popular so she may not be able to win the seat for McCain.
Bob Schaffer: Former Rep, Ranking: 3, Running for Senate
Doug Lamborn: Rep CO-5, Ranking: 4, May help some in Colorado, but there are better options.
Tom Tancredo: Rep CO-6, Ranking: 2, With Tancredo on the ticket McCain can kiss the Hispanic vote goodbye.
Bill Ritter: Gov, Ranking: 5, Ritter has solid Democratic credentials and would likely flip Colorado to the Democrats if put on the ticket. Ritter's main weakness is that he has served even less time than Obama in a major office.
Ken Salazar: Sen, Ranking: 5, Like Ritter Salazar is very popular in Colorado, but Salazar was first elected in the same year as Obama.
Patricia Schroeder: Former Rep, Ranking: 6, Although Schroder has been out of Congress for 12 years, she is still a viable choice. She had been a Congress woman for over twenty years and is popular in some feminist circles, and she still has some name rec. in Colorado.
Mark Udall: Rep Co-2, Ranking: 3, Would be credible, but is running for Senate instead.
John Salazar: Rep CO-3, Ranking: 4, Why take John if you can have Ken?
Ed Perlmutter: Rep CO-7, Ranking: 4, If Obama wants a Coloradoan he has many better options.
Colorado Republicans
Bob Beauprez: Former Rep, Ranking: 4, The former congressman may be able to help McCain a little in what could end up as a very important state, but other than that Beauprez is a fairly weak vp candidate. He only served two terms in office and was recently creamed in an open Governor's race.
Wayne Allard: Sen, Ranking:6, Allard has served in the Congress since 1997 and before that was in Congress since 1991. Allard would give McCain a huge boost in Colorado and would help with McCain's independent image due to Allard's strong environmental record.
Hank Brown: Former Sen, Ranking: 4, Brown has been out of the political picture for over a decade now, but may help McCain in Colorado.
Gale Norton: Former Secretary of the Interior, Ranking 3, Norton served in the Bush cabinet for five years, which could help McCain with executive experience, but also tie him closer to the unpopular Bush Presidency.
Bill Owens: Former Gov, Ranking: 7, Owens would secure Colorado for McCain and he would be a solid all around candidate. Owens does have a few problems with the base on taxes however.
Marilyn Musgrave: Rep CO-4, Ranking: 4, Musgrove may be from a swing state, but is not widely popular so she may not be able to win the seat for McCain.
Bob Schaffer: Former Rep, Ranking: 3, Running for Senate
Doug Lamborn: Rep CO-5, Ranking: 4, May help some in Colorado, but there are better options.
Tom Tancredo: Rep CO-6, Ranking: 2, With Tancredo on the ticket McCain can kiss the Hispanic vote goodbye.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
VP rankings California
California Democrats
Antonio Villaraigosa: Mayor of LA, Ranking 5, The mayor of LA would likely help Obama greatly with Hispanics and could help Obama highlight the historic part of Obama's candidacy. However Villaraigosa has a sex scandal on his hands.
Gray Davis: Former Gov, Ranking: 2, Davis's image has made a bit of a rebound since the recall, but there is still no way he would be selected vp.John Garamendi: Lt. Gov and former US Secretary of the Interior, Ranking: 4, Garamendi has a good amount of executive experience, but has never held a major office.
Dianne Feinstein: Sen, Ranking: 4, Feinstein could help Obama with women, Jews, and the party base, but at age 75 she would likely be a one term vp and as a former mayor of San Francisco she would re enforce Obama's liberal image.
Barbara Boxer: Sen, Ranking: 5, Pretty much the same as Feinstien only a bit younger.
Mike Thompson: Rep CA-1, Ranking: 5, Thompson is a Blue Dog Democrat that has served in Congress since 1998 and has a military background. No real negatives.
Doris Matsui: Rep CA-5, Ranking: 4, Matsui was born in an internment camp during WW2 which could add a cool story line to the Obama campaign, but she has only been in Congress since 2005 after the death of her husband.
Lynn Woolsey: Rep CA-6, Ranking: 3, A strong liberal from the San Francisco Bay does nothing to negate a possible elitist image of Obama.
George Miller: Rep CA-7, Ranking: 6, Miller is a solid liberal who has served in Congress since the 1970s. As chair of the Education and Labor Committee, he could give Obama a small experience boost.
Nancy Pelosi: Speaker of the House, Ranking: 3, Pelosi is better served to stay in he Speaker position.
Barbara Lee: Rep CA-9, Ranking: 2, Lee is one of the most liberal members of Congress and the Dems are unlikely to put two African Americans on the ticket.
Ellen Tauscher: Rep CA-10, Ranking: 5, Tauscher is one of the more moderate Reps from northern California, but is not a very high profile Congresswoman.
Jerry McNerney: Rep CA-11, Ranking: 3, McNearney represents a Republican leaning district, but is only in his first term.
Jackie Speier: Rep CA-12, Ranking: 2, Speier is a veteran in local politics, but will have served less than a year in Congress on inauguration day.
Pete Stark: Rep CA-13, Ranking: 3, Stark has served in Congress since 1973, but is the only open atheist to serve in Congress and is 76.
Anna Eshoo: Rep CA-14, Ranking: 5, Eshoo has been in Congress since 1993, but has not made much of a name for herself.
Mike Honda: Rep CA-15, Ranking 4, Honda was first elected in 2000 and has been very active in civil rights issues, but cannot help Obama in the areas he needs help in.
Zoe Lofgren: Rep CA-16, Ranking 5, Lofgren has been in the house since 1995 and serves as chair of Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration.
Sam Farr: Rep CA-17, Ranking: 4, Other than being in the house for 15 years there is no real benefit of having Farr on the ticket.
Dennis Cardoza: Rep CA-18, Ranking: 5, Cardoza is a centrist and fairly young, but has no exceptional qualities to put him on the ticket.
Jim Costa: Rep CA-20, Ranking: 5, A Blue Dog Democrat from the Central Valley, but has little experience.
Lois Capps: Rep CA-23, Ranking: 4, Could help a little with women but is old (70) and has been undistinguished in her 10 years in congress.
Brad Sherman: Rep CA-27, Ranking: 5, first elected in 1996, and could help Obama with the Jewish vote.
Howard Berman: Rep CA-28, Ranking: 6, A more experienced and more liberal version of Brad Sherman.
Adam Schiff: Rep CA-29, Ranking: 4, Boring.
Henry Waxman: Rep CA-30, Ranking: 3, Image of having a Hollywood Jew on the ticket could sink Obama's campaign.
Xavier Becerra: Rep CA-31, Ranking: 7, A somewhat high profile experienced Congressman who could give Obama a boost with Hispanics.
Hilda Solis: Rep CA-32, Ranking:5, Could help Obama with Hispanics and women, but may add to his experience problem.
Diane Watson: Rep CA-33, Ranking: 1, Watson is an Arch liberal in the Congress, but is also older than McCain.
Lucille Roybal-Allard: Rep CA-34, Ranking: 6, Being the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress could help Obama with Hispanics.
Maxine Waters: Rep CA-35, Ranking: 2, Walter's various corruption charges, liberal record, and controversial statements could flip the election to McCain.
Jane Harman: Rep CA-36, Ranking: 6, Decent experience and could help Obama with woman and Jewish voters.
Laura Richardson, Rep CA-37, Ranking: 3, Will have served less than a term on election day.
Grace Napolitano: Rep CA-38, Ranking: 3, A fairly minor Congresswoman, and is 71.
Linda Sánchez: Rep CA-39, Ranking: 5, A young (39) three term congresswoman. A fairly bright political future, but her time is probably not now.
Joe Baca: Rep CA-43, Ranking: 3, A prominent Hispanic politician, but has ethical and woman issues.
Loretta Sanchez: Rep CA-47, Ranking: 7, A former Republican Sanchez is a major rising star in the Democratic party. Sanchez could help Obama with Hispanics, woman, and independents.
Bob Filner: Rep CA-51, Ranking: 4, A minor Congressman, who is best known for an altercation at an airport.
Susan Davis: Rep CA-53, Ranking: 5, A moderate and a woman, certainly should not do damage to the ticket.
California Republicans
Condi Rice: Sec of State, Ranking: 6, Rice has a lot of executive experience, has a brilliant mind and could help McCain with women and minorities. On the downside she could tie McCain even more to Bush.
Pete Wilson: Former Gov and Former Sen, Ranking: 3, Wilson was a dominate force in California politics in the 1980s and 1990s, but his age (74) will keep him off the ticket.
Wally Herger: Rep CA-2, Ranking: 5, Herger was 1st elected to Congress in 1986 and has become a fairly powerful member although he is not a ranking member on any committee.
Dan Lungren: Rep CA-3, Ranking: 6, Lungren has served two stints in Congress and has held state office in California. Lungren has also got greater name rec. than most Congressmen, partially from his failed run for Governor.
John Doolittle: Rep CA-4, Ranking: 1, Doolittle has been forced to give up his seat after this term due to ethical issues.
Doug Ose: Former Rep, Ranking: 3, Ose was a moderate during his time in Congress which could upset the GOP base, and he recently loss a primary.
Tom Campbell: Former Rep, Ranking: 4, Was a rare Republican from the Bay Area, but has been out of office for a while.
George Radanovich: Rep CA-19, Ranking: 5, As part of the 1994 Republican Revolution Radanovich could be a play back to the days when things were not so bad for Republicans.
Devin Nunes: Rep CA-21, Ranking: 6, Will be only 35 on election day, and could help McCain with Hispanic voters.
Kevin McCarthy: Rep CA-22, Ranking: 5, Young (43), but is only a Freshman in Congress.
Bill Thomas: Former Rep, Ranking: 5, Experienced former Rep, but a rather bland pick.
Elton Gallegly: Rep CA-24, Ranking: 4, Has been in congress since 1987, but little more. District could be vulnerable if vacated.
Howard McKeon: Rep CA-25, Ranking: 5, Old (69), but is the ranking member for Education and Labor.
David Dreier: Rep CA-26, Ranking: 3, First elected in 1980, but gay rumors could hurt him with base.
Ed Royce: Rep CA-40, Ranking: 5, Could be popular with fiscal conservatives, but is otherwise fairly generic.
Jerry Lewis: Rep CA-41, Ranking: 2, Has corruption problems and is older than McCain.
Gary Miller: Rep CA-42, Ranking: 4, Miller has a military and business background which Republicans like, but has some ethical issues as well.
Ken Calvert: Rep CA-44, Ranking: 4, A fairly moderate Republican, but has some ethical issues.
Mary Bono, Rep CA-45, Ranking: 4, May help some with woman voters and is only 46, but her past ties to Scientology could be a drag on the ticket.
Dana Rohrabacher: Rep CA-46, Ranking: 4, Ties to Reagan could help with base, but pro medical marijuana and ethical issues could hurt the ticket.
John Campbell: Rep CA-48, Ranking: 3, Typical two term Congressman.
Chris Cox: SEC Chair and Former Rep, Ranking: 8, Cox could be a big boost for the GOP base, especially economic conservatives, but probably has limited appeal to independents.
Darrell Issa: Rep CA-49, Ranking: 5, California recall hero, but a growing list of scandals could hurt the ticket among independents.
Brian Bilbray: Rep CA-50, Ranking: 3, A long time local politician, but has only been in Congress since 2006.
Duncan Hunter: Rep CA-52, Ranking: 6, Fairly high profile for a Congressman. Could help highlight McCain's Military credentials, and help McCain with the anti-immigration crowd.
Antonio Villaraigosa: Mayor of LA, Ranking 5, The mayor of LA would likely help Obama greatly with Hispanics and could help Obama highlight the historic part of Obama's candidacy. However Villaraigosa has a sex scandal on his hands.
Gray Davis: Former Gov, Ranking: 2, Davis's image has made a bit of a rebound since the recall, but there is still no way he would be selected vp.John Garamendi: Lt. Gov and former US Secretary of the Interior, Ranking: 4, Garamendi has a good amount of executive experience, but has never held a major office.
Dianne Feinstein: Sen, Ranking: 4, Feinstein could help Obama with women, Jews, and the party base, but at age 75 she would likely be a one term vp and as a former mayor of San Francisco she would re enforce Obama's liberal image.
Barbara Boxer: Sen, Ranking: 5, Pretty much the same as Feinstien only a bit younger.
Mike Thompson: Rep CA-1, Ranking: 5, Thompson is a Blue Dog Democrat that has served in Congress since 1998 and has a military background. No real negatives.
Doris Matsui: Rep CA-5, Ranking: 4, Matsui was born in an internment camp during WW2 which could add a cool story line to the Obama campaign, but she has only been in Congress since 2005 after the death of her husband.
Lynn Woolsey: Rep CA-6, Ranking: 3, A strong liberal from the San Francisco Bay does nothing to negate a possible elitist image of Obama.
George Miller: Rep CA-7, Ranking: 6, Miller is a solid liberal who has served in Congress since the 1970s. As chair of the Education and Labor Committee, he could give Obama a small experience boost.
Nancy Pelosi: Speaker of the House, Ranking: 3, Pelosi is better served to stay in he Speaker position.
Barbara Lee: Rep CA-9, Ranking: 2, Lee is one of the most liberal members of Congress and the Dems are unlikely to put two African Americans on the ticket.
Ellen Tauscher: Rep CA-10, Ranking: 5, Tauscher is one of the more moderate Reps from northern California, but is not a very high profile Congresswoman.
Jerry McNerney: Rep CA-11, Ranking: 3, McNearney represents a Republican leaning district, but is only in his first term.
Jackie Speier: Rep CA-12, Ranking: 2, Speier is a veteran in local politics, but will have served less than a year in Congress on inauguration day.
Pete Stark: Rep CA-13, Ranking: 3, Stark has served in Congress since 1973, but is the only open atheist to serve in Congress and is 76.
Anna Eshoo: Rep CA-14, Ranking: 5, Eshoo has been in Congress since 1993, but has not made much of a name for herself.
Mike Honda: Rep CA-15, Ranking 4, Honda was first elected in 2000 and has been very active in civil rights issues, but cannot help Obama in the areas he needs help in.
Zoe Lofgren: Rep CA-16, Ranking 5, Lofgren has been in the house since 1995 and serves as chair of Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration.
Sam Farr: Rep CA-17, Ranking: 4, Other than being in the house for 15 years there is no real benefit of having Farr on the ticket.
Dennis Cardoza: Rep CA-18, Ranking: 5, Cardoza is a centrist and fairly young, but has no exceptional qualities to put him on the ticket.
Jim Costa: Rep CA-20, Ranking: 5, A Blue Dog Democrat from the Central Valley, but has little experience.
Lois Capps: Rep CA-23, Ranking: 4, Could help a little with women but is old (70) and has been undistinguished in her 10 years in congress.
Brad Sherman: Rep CA-27, Ranking: 5, first elected in 1996, and could help Obama with the Jewish vote.
Howard Berman: Rep CA-28, Ranking: 6, A more experienced and more liberal version of Brad Sherman.
Adam Schiff: Rep CA-29, Ranking: 4, Boring.
Henry Waxman: Rep CA-30, Ranking: 3, Image of having a Hollywood Jew on the ticket could sink Obama's campaign.
Xavier Becerra: Rep CA-31, Ranking: 7, A somewhat high profile experienced Congressman who could give Obama a boost with Hispanics.
Hilda Solis: Rep CA-32, Ranking:5, Could help Obama with Hispanics and women, but may add to his experience problem.
Diane Watson: Rep CA-33, Ranking: 1, Watson is an Arch liberal in the Congress, but is also older than McCain.
Lucille Roybal-Allard: Rep CA-34, Ranking: 6, Being the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress could help Obama with Hispanics.
Maxine Waters: Rep CA-35, Ranking: 2, Walter's various corruption charges, liberal record, and controversial statements could flip the election to McCain.
Jane Harman: Rep CA-36, Ranking: 6, Decent experience and could help Obama with woman and Jewish voters.
Laura Richardson, Rep CA-37, Ranking: 3, Will have served less than a term on election day.
Grace Napolitano: Rep CA-38, Ranking: 3, A fairly minor Congresswoman, and is 71.
Linda Sánchez: Rep CA-39, Ranking: 5, A young (39) three term congresswoman. A fairly bright political future, but her time is probably not now.
Joe Baca: Rep CA-43, Ranking: 3, A prominent Hispanic politician, but has ethical and woman issues.
Loretta Sanchez: Rep CA-47, Ranking: 7, A former Republican Sanchez is a major rising star in the Democratic party. Sanchez could help Obama with Hispanics, woman, and independents.
Bob Filner: Rep CA-51, Ranking: 4, A minor Congressman, who is best known for an altercation at an airport.
Susan Davis: Rep CA-53, Ranking: 5, A moderate and a woman, certainly should not do damage to the ticket.
California Republicans
Condi Rice: Sec of State, Ranking: 6, Rice has a lot of executive experience, has a brilliant mind and could help McCain with women and minorities. On the downside she could tie McCain even more to Bush.
Pete Wilson: Former Gov and Former Sen, Ranking: 3, Wilson was a dominate force in California politics in the 1980s and 1990s, but his age (74) will keep him off the ticket.
Wally Herger: Rep CA-2, Ranking: 5, Herger was 1st elected to Congress in 1986 and has become a fairly powerful member although he is not a ranking member on any committee.
Dan Lungren: Rep CA-3, Ranking: 6, Lungren has served two stints in Congress and has held state office in California. Lungren has also got greater name rec. than most Congressmen, partially from his failed run for Governor.
John Doolittle: Rep CA-4, Ranking: 1, Doolittle has been forced to give up his seat after this term due to ethical issues.
Doug Ose: Former Rep, Ranking: 3, Ose was a moderate during his time in Congress which could upset the GOP base, and he recently loss a primary.
Tom Campbell: Former Rep, Ranking: 4, Was a rare Republican from the Bay Area, but has been out of office for a while.
George Radanovich: Rep CA-19, Ranking: 5, As part of the 1994 Republican Revolution Radanovich could be a play back to the days when things were not so bad for Republicans.
Devin Nunes: Rep CA-21, Ranking: 6, Will be only 35 on election day, and could help McCain with Hispanic voters.
Kevin McCarthy: Rep CA-22, Ranking: 5, Young (43), but is only a Freshman in Congress.
Bill Thomas: Former Rep, Ranking: 5, Experienced former Rep, but a rather bland pick.
Elton Gallegly: Rep CA-24, Ranking: 4, Has been in congress since 1987, but little more. District could be vulnerable if vacated.
Howard McKeon: Rep CA-25, Ranking: 5, Old (69), but is the ranking member for Education and Labor.
David Dreier: Rep CA-26, Ranking: 3, First elected in 1980, but gay rumors could hurt him with base.
Ed Royce: Rep CA-40, Ranking: 5, Could be popular with fiscal conservatives, but is otherwise fairly generic.
Jerry Lewis: Rep CA-41, Ranking: 2, Has corruption problems and is older than McCain.
Gary Miller: Rep CA-42, Ranking: 4, Miller has a military and business background which Republicans like, but has some ethical issues as well.
Ken Calvert: Rep CA-44, Ranking: 4, A fairly moderate Republican, but has some ethical issues.
Mary Bono, Rep CA-45, Ranking: 4, May help some with woman voters and is only 46, but her past ties to Scientology could be a drag on the ticket.
Dana Rohrabacher: Rep CA-46, Ranking: 4, Ties to Reagan could help with base, but pro medical marijuana and ethical issues could hurt the ticket.
John Campbell: Rep CA-48, Ranking: 3, Typical two term Congressman.
Chris Cox: SEC Chair and Former Rep, Ranking: 8, Cox could be a big boost for the GOP base, especially economic conservatives, but probably has limited appeal to independents.
Darrell Issa: Rep CA-49, Ranking: 5, California recall hero, but a growing list of scandals could hurt the ticket among independents.
Brian Bilbray: Rep CA-50, Ranking: 3, A long time local politician, but has only been in Congress since 2006.
Duncan Hunter: Rep CA-52, Ranking: 6, Fairly high profile for a Congressman. Could help highlight McCain's Military credentials, and help McCain with the anti-immigration crowd.
VP rankings Arkansas
Arkansas Democrat
Wes Clark: Former General, Ranking: 10, Clark is my #1 choice for Obama's vp. He highlights Obama's strong points and offsets his weaknesses. Clark is an outsider never being elected to office, but at the same time has good experience especially in defense which could be Obama's weak point. Clark may not flip any specific state, but he fixes a lot of voter's concerns about Obama.
Mike Beebe, Gov, Ranking: 5, Beebe provides a shot a Arkansas and a Southerner, but there are better options that give Obama the same thing.
Jim Guy Tucker, Former Gov, Ranking 1, He is associated with the Clintons, but in a bad way. ie Whitewater.
Blanche Lincoln, Sen, Ranking: 6, Lincoln is a solid all around choice, woman, young, experienced, southern, and centrist. Lincoln could help with Clinton supporters, and put Arkansas into play.
Mark Pryor, Sen, Ranking: 6, A male version of Blanche Lincoln.
Marion Berry, Rep AR-1, Ranking: 4, Provides a ballance to liberal Obama, but is an unknown and could be mistaken with the other Marion Berry.
Vic Snyder: Rep AR-2, Ranking: 5, Has represented a southern swing district for a decade, and has a very strong anti-Iraq war record.
Mike Ross: Rep AR-4, Ranking: 4, Ross is pro-life and pro-gun which is both a positive and a negative. Other than that he is a fairly undistinguished Congressman.
Arkansas Republican
Mike Huckabee, Former Gov, Ranking: 5, Huckabee is a risk-reward candidate. Positives: high name recognition, good social conservative credentials, southern governor, telegenic. Negatives: Has made damaging comments, fiscal conservatives don't like him.
Tim Hutchinson, Former Sen, Ranking: 4, Conservative former senator who has fallen out of the political picture since his defeat for reelection.
John Boozman, Rep AR-3, Ranking: 5, The only significant current Republican elected official in Arkansas has to be worth something.
Asa Hutchinson: Former Rep AR-3, Ranking: 4, Was once among the top Republicans in Arkansas and may still be popular with social conservatives. His political career seems to be over with his defeat in the 2006 Gubernatorial election.
Wes Clark: Former General, Ranking: 10, Clark is my #1 choice for Obama's vp. He highlights Obama's strong points and offsets his weaknesses. Clark is an outsider never being elected to office, but at the same time has good experience especially in defense which could be Obama's weak point. Clark may not flip any specific state, but he fixes a lot of voter's concerns about Obama.
Mike Beebe, Gov, Ranking: 5, Beebe provides a shot a Arkansas and a Southerner, but there are better options that give Obama the same thing.
Jim Guy Tucker, Former Gov, Ranking 1, He is associated with the Clintons, but in a bad way. ie Whitewater.
Blanche Lincoln, Sen, Ranking: 6, Lincoln is a solid all around choice, woman, young, experienced, southern, and centrist. Lincoln could help with Clinton supporters, and put Arkansas into play.
Mark Pryor, Sen, Ranking: 6, A male version of Blanche Lincoln.
Marion Berry, Rep AR-1, Ranking: 4, Provides a ballance to liberal Obama, but is an unknown and could be mistaken with the other Marion Berry.
Vic Snyder: Rep AR-2, Ranking: 5, Has represented a southern swing district for a decade, and has a very strong anti-Iraq war record.
Mike Ross: Rep AR-4, Ranking: 4, Ross is pro-life and pro-gun which is both a positive and a negative. Other than that he is a fairly undistinguished Congressman.
Arkansas Republican
Mike Huckabee, Former Gov, Ranking: 5, Huckabee is a risk-reward candidate. Positives: high name recognition, good social conservative credentials, southern governor, telegenic. Negatives: Has made damaging comments, fiscal conservatives don't like him.
Tim Hutchinson, Former Sen, Ranking: 4, Conservative former senator who has fallen out of the political picture since his defeat for reelection.
John Boozman, Rep AR-3, Ranking: 5, The only significant current Republican elected official in Arkansas has to be worth something.
Asa Hutchinson: Former Rep AR-3, Ranking: 4, Was once among the top Republicans in Arkansas and may still be popular with social conservatives. His political career seems to be over with his defeat in the 2006 Gubernatorial election.
VP Rankings Arizona
- only Democrats will be listed due to Arizona Republicans being ineligible.
Arizona Democrats
Janet Napolitano: Gov, Ranking: 7: There are a lot of positives for Napolitano she is a highly popular governor from a right leaning state and she could help obama with woman. The only real downside is that she could not bring in her home state.
Ed Pastor: Rep AZ-4, Ranking: 4, A suprise pick and a boring pick. Pastor has a fairly liberal voting record but only helps the ticket by not hurting it.
Harry Mitchell: Rep AZ-5, Ranking: 3, Although Mitchell is old (67) he is only a one term congressman. Mitchell also represents a Republican leaning district and his selection could give the seat back to the Republicans.
Raul Grijalva: Rep AZ-7, Ranking: 2, Grijalva is the Kucinich of the Southwest. He is especialy known for his strongly pro-imigration views which may help with hispanics, but could hurt in other groups.
Gabrielle Giffords: Rep AZ-8, Ranking: 2, Gifforts took the swing seat in 2006 and is barly eligable to serve ay vp being only 38. Inexpirence and handing her seat back over to the GOP takes her out of the running.
Arizona Democrats
Janet Napolitano: Gov, Ranking: 7: There are a lot of positives for Napolitano she is a highly popular governor from a right leaning state and she could help obama with woman. The only real downside is that she could not bring in her home state.
Ed Pastor: Rep AZ-4, Ranking: 4, A suprise pick and a boring pick. Pastor has a fairly liberal voting record but only helps the ticket by not hurting it.
Harry Mitchell: Rep AZ-5, Ranking: 3, Although Mitchell is old (67) he is only a one term congressman. Mitchell also represents a Republican leaning district and his selection could give the seat back to the Republicans.
Raul Grijalva: Rep AZ-7, Ranking: 2, Grijalva is the Kucinich of the Southwest. He is especialy known for his strongly pro-imigration views which may help with hispanics, but could hurt in other groups.
Gabrielle Giffords: Rep AZ-8, Ranking: 2, Gifforts took the swing seat in 2006 and is barly eligable to serve ay vp being only 38. Inexpirence and handing her seat back over to the GOP takes her out of the running.
VP Rankings Alaska
Alaska Democrats
Tony Knowles, Former Gov, Ranking: 3, over the past 20 years Knowles has been the biggest name in the Alaskan Democratic party, but Knowles has lost his last two elestions and his political career apears over.
Alaska Republicans
Sarah Palin, Gov, Ranking: 6, Palin represents the face of the new Republican party that is trying to break from the corrupt old guard. Palin is highly popular and would be a good counter to McCain's age while highlighting his Maverick image. Palin's recent pregnancy hurts her chances.
Ted Stevens, Sen, Ranking: 1, Stevens has been in the Senate since 1968 and is 84. Stevens age and corruption problems that may result in prison time eliminates him from the vp hunt.
Lisa Murkowski, Sen, Ranking: 4, Murkowski is by far the younger of Alaska's two senators and is all around a better choice than Stevens. Murkowski however is not hugely popular, almost losing her reelection race in 2006. She is also part of a political family that is associated with the unpopular old guard of the Alaska GOP.
Don Young, Rep, Ranking: 1, Young is the Houses version of Stevens. He has served forever, he's old, and has major ethical issues.
Tony Knowles, Former Gov, Ranking: 3, over the past 20 years Knowles has been the biggest name in the Alaskan Democratic party, but Knowles has lost his last two elestions and his political career apears over.
Alaska Republicans
Sarah Palin, Gov, Ranking: 6, Palin represents the face of the new Republican party that is trying to break from the corrupt old guard. Palin is highly popular and would be a good counter to McCain's age while highlighting his Maverick image. Palin's recent pregnancy hurts her chances.
Ted Stevens, Sen, Ranking: 1, Stevens has been in the Senate since 1968 and is 84. Stevens age and corruption problems that may result in prison time eliminates him from the vp hunt.
Lisa Murkowski, Sen, Ranking: 4, Murkowski is by far the younger of Alaska's two senators and is all around a better choice than Stevens. Murkowski however is not hugely popular, almost losing her reelection race in 2006. She is also part of a political family that is associated with the unpopular old guard of the Alaska GOP.
Don Young, Rep, Ranking: 1, Young is the Houses version of Stevens. He has served forever, he's old, and has major ethical issues.
VP Rankings Alabama
Over the next few days I will be ranking the possible vp selections for Obama and McCain on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being a possible election winner and 1 being an election ender. Today I will rank the vp possibilities from the state of Alabama.
Alabama Democrats:
Jim Folsom JR: Former Gov and current Lt. Gov, Ranking: 4, Folsom is the son of a popular ex-Alabama Governor, and had a fairly successful term as Governor in the mid 90s, but suffered a defeat for reelection in the GOP year of 1994. Recently Folsom has made a bit of a political comeback, becoming Lt. Governor in 2006. Folsom is a credible choice for Obama, but would not likely help him in the election.
Don Siegelman: Former Gov, Ranking: 1, Siegelman was governor between 1999 and 2003, and was narrowly defeated for reelection in 2002. Since Siegelman left office he has been dogged by a corruption scandal and has served two years in prison, killing any chance he had at the vp spot.
Bud Cramer: Rep Al-5, Ranking: 6, Congressman Cramer has represented a conservative leaning district for the last 18 years. Cramer is a centrist who has also voted against the surge. Cramer is also retiring anyways so his selection would not put another seat up for grabs.
Artur Davis: Rep Al-7, Ranking 3, Davis represents the strongly Democratic, black majority 7th district. Davis is even younger than Obama (40) but was first elected to congress in 2002. Davis has also received praise for his bipartisan work. However the party is unlikely to put two African Americans on the ticket.
Alabama Republicans:
Bob Riley: Gov. of Alabama, Ranking: 7, A southern governor with generally good conservative credentials makes Riley a strong choice for VP. At the beginning of his first term Riley attempted to reform the tax code against the protest of many conservatives in the state. Riley's tax reform failed and many thought Riley had become a lame duck. However Riley has regained much of his lost popularity and he could boot McCain's reformer image while at the same time appeal to social conservatives.
Roy Moore: Former Chief Justice of Alabama Supreme Court: Ranking: 3, Moore is best know for placing a monument of the 10 commandments in the Alabama Supreme court several years back. Moore also attempted a primary challenge to Governor Riley in 2006, but was soundly defeated. Moore would be a desperate pander to the religious right in the unlikely event he is chosen.
Fob James: Former Gov, Ranking: 3, James served as governor of Alabama twice. The first time between 1979 and 1983 and the second time between 1995 and 1999. James has switched parties a few times, but has a strongly conservative record. His age (73) likely takes him out of the vp hunt.
Richard Shelby: Senator and ex Rep, Ranking 4, Senator Shelby was originally elected as a Democrat back in 1986, but switched parties in 1994. In the senate Shelby is a strong conservative on social and military issues, but is moderate in economic issues. Shelby's age (74) makes him an unlikely selection.
Jeff Sessions: Senator, Ranking 5, Sessions has served in the senate since 1997 and has built up one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate. His strong conservative views could help McCain, but his questionable record on race relations could hurt him among other Americans.
Jo Bonner: Rep Al-1, Ranking 5, The strongly conservative Bonner has served since 2003 has received 100 rankings from both the christian coalition and the chamber of commerce. Bonner is a fairly unknown Rep, but is fairly young (48) and has strong conservative voting record, so there is nothing that should disqualify him.
Terry Everett: Rep Al-2, Ranking 2, Conservative but not especially so by deep south standards. Congressman Everett is almost as old as McCain (71) and his mixed record may not rally the conservatives McCain needs.
Mike Rogers: Rep AL-3, Ranking 5, Rogers is generally a reliable conservative who represents a swing district. Rogers is also young (50) at least compared to McCain, and has no big downfalls other than being unknown.
Robert Aderholt: Rep AL-4, Ranking 5, Despite being a relatively unknown Congressman, Aderholt has a number of positives: 1. Strong conservative record 2. Young (42) 3. Has decent experience (first elected in 1996). Because of these strengths Aderholt would be a decent surprise pick.
Spencer Bachus: Rep AL-6, Ranking 4, Bachus has represented Alabama's most conservative district since being elected in 1992. There is nothing however that makes Bachus interesting as a vp pick.
Alabama Democrats:
Jim Folsom JR: Former Gov and current Lt. Gov, Ranking: 4, Folsom is the son of a popular ex-Alabama Governor, and had a fairly successful term as Governor in the mid 90s, but suffered a defeat for reelection in the GOP year of 1994. Recently Folsom has made a bit of a political comeback, becoming Lt. Governor in 2006. Folsom is a credible choice for Obama, but would not likely help him in the election.
Don Siegelman: Former Gov, Ranking: 1, Siegelman was governor between 1999 and 2003, and was narrowly defeated for reelection in 2002. Since Siegelman left office he has been dogged by a corruption scandal and has served two years in prison, killing any chance he had at the vp spot.
Bud Cramer: Rep Al-5, Ranking: 6, Congressman Cramer has represented a conservative leaning district for the last 18 years. Cramer is a centrist who has also voted against the surge. Cramer is also retiring anyways so his selection would not put another seat up for grabs.
Artur Davis: Rep Al-7, Ranking 3, Davis represents the strongly Democratic, black majority 7th district. Davis is even younger than Obama (40) but was first elected to congress in 2002. Davis has also received praise for his bipartisan work. However the party is unlikely to put two African Americans on the ticket.
Alabama Republicans:
Bob Riley: Gov. of Alabama, Ranking: 7, A southern governor with generally good conservative credentials makes Riley a strong choice for VP. At the beginning of his first term Riley attempted to reform the tax code against the protest of many conservatives in the state. Riley's tax reform failed and many thought Riley had become a lame duck. However Riley has regained much of his lost popularity and he could boot McCain's reformer image while at the same time appeal to social conservatives.
Roy Moore: Former Chief Justice of Alabama Supreme Court: Ranking: 3, Moore is best know for placing a monument of the 10 commandments in the Alabama Supreme court several years back. Moore also attempted a primary challenge to Governor Riley in 2006, but was soundly defeated. Moore would be a desperate pander to the religious right in the unlikely event he is chosen.
Fob James: Former Gov, Ranking: 3, James served as governor of Alabama twice. The first time between 1979 and 1983 and the second time between 1995 and 1999. James has switched parties a few times, but has a strongly conservative record. His age (73) likely takes him out of the vp hunt.
Richard Shelby: Senator and ex Rep, Ranking 4, Senator Shelby was originally elected as a Democrat back in 1986, but switched parties in 1994. In the senate Shelby is a strong conservative on social and military issues, but is moderate in economic issues. Shelby's age (74) makes him an unlikely selection.
Jeff Sessions: Senator, Ranking 5, Sessions has served in the senate since 1997 and has built up one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate. His strong conservative views could help McCain, but his questionable record on race relations could hurt him among other Americans.
Jo Bonner: Rep Al-1, Ranking 5, The strongly conservative Bonner has served since 2003 has received 100 rankings from both the christian coalition and the chamber of commerce. Bonner is a fairly unknown Rep, but is fairly young (48) and has strong conservative voting record, so there is nothing that should disqualify him.
Terry Everett: Rep Al-2, Ranking 2, Conservative but not especially so by deep south standards. Congressman Everett is almost as old as McCain (71) and his mixed record may not rally the conservatives McCain needs.
Mike Rogers: Rep AL-3, Ranking 5, Rogers is generally a reliable conservative who represents a swing district. Rogers is also young (50) at least compared to McCain, and has no big downfalls other than being unknown.
Robert Aderholt: Rep AL-4, Ranking 5, Despite being a relatively unknown Congressman, Aderholt has a number of positives: 1. Strong conservative record 2. Young (42) 3. Has decent experience (first elected in 1996). Because of these strengths Aderholt would be a decent surprise pick.
Spencer Bachus: Rep AL-6, Ranking 4, Bachus has represented Alabama's most conservative district since being elected in 1992. There is nothing however that makes Bachus interesting as a vp pick.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Senate/Gov Projections III
Updated Senate and Gov. rankings. Last rank in ()
Governors:
Dem takeover
1. Missouri (Nixon) (1)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
2. Indiana (Thompson) (2)
Safe GOP
3. Vermont (Symington) (3)
4. North Dakota (Mathern) (4)
5. Utah (Springmeyer) (5)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Washington (Rossi) (1)
2. North Carolina (McCroy) (2)
Safe Dem
3. Delaware (TBD) (3)
4. Montana (Brown) (4)
5. West Virginia (Weeks) (5)
6. New Hampshire (Kenney)(6)
Senate
Dem takeover
1. Virginia (Warner) (1)
2. New Mexico (Udall) (2)
Lean Dem takeover
3. New Hampshire (Shaheen) (3)
4. Colorado (Udall) (4)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
5. Alaska (Begich) (5)
6. Mississippi B (Musgrove) (7)
7. Oregon (Merkley) (6)
Possible in Dem landslide/Probably GOP
8. Kentucky (Lunsford) (11)
9. North Carolina (Hagen) (8)
10. Minnesota (Franken) (9)
11. Kansas (Slattery) (12)
12. Texas (Noriega) (10)
13. Maine (Allen) (15)
14. Oklahoma (Rice) (13)
15. Idaho (LaRocco) (14)
Safe GOP
16. Nebraska (Kleeb) (16)
17. Georgia (Jones) (18)
18. Tennessee (TBD) (19)
19. Wyoming B (Goodenough) (17)
20. Wyoming A (Rothfuss) (21)
21. Alabama (Figures) (20)
22. Mississippi A (Fleming) (22)
23. South Carolina (Cone) (23)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Louisiana (Kennedy) (1)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
2. New Jersey (Zimmer) (2)
Safe Dem
3. Michigan (Hoogendyk) (4)
4. South Dakota (Dykstra) (3)
5. Massachusetts (Beatty) (6)
6. Illinois (Sauerburgh) (5)
7. West Virginia (Wolfe) (7)
8. Delaware (O'Donnell) (8)
9. Iowa (Reed) (9)
10. Rhode Island (Tingle) (12)
11. Montana (Kelleher) (10)
12. Arkansas (Green Party) (11)
Governors:
Dem takeover
1. Missouri (Nixon) (1)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
2. Indiana (Thompson) (2)
Safe GOP
3. Vermont (Symington) (3)
4. North Dakota (Mathern) (4)
5. Utah (Springmeyer) (5)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Washington (Rossi) (1)
2. North Carolina (McCroy) (2)
Safe Dem
3. Delaware (TBD) (3)
4. Montana (Brown) (4)
5. West Virginia (Weeks) (5)
6. New Hampshire (Kenney)(6)
Senate
Dem takeover
1. Virginia (Warner) (1)
2. New Mexico (Udall) (2)
Lean Dem takeover
3. New Hampshire (Shaheen) (3)
4. Colorado (Udall) (4)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
5. Alaska (Begich) (5)
6. Mississippi B (Musgrove) (7)
7. Oregon (Merkley) (6)
Possible in Dem landslide/Probably GOP
8. Kentucky (Lunsford) (11)
9. North Carolina (Hagen) (8)
10. Minnesota (Franken) (9)
11. Kansas (Slattery) (12)
12. Texas (Noriega) (10)
13. Maine (Allen) (15)
14. Oklahoma (Rice) (13)
15. Idaho (LaRocco) (14)
Safe GOP
16. Nebraska (Kleeb) (16)
17. Georgia (Jones) (18)
18. Tennessee (TBD) (19)
19. Wyoming B (Goodenough) (17)
20. Wyoming A (Rothfuss) (21)
21. Alabama (Figures) (20)
22. Mississippi A (Fleming) (22)
23. South Carolina (Cone) (23)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Louisiana (Kennedy) (1)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
2. New Jersey (Zimmer) (2)
Safe Dem
3. Michigan (Hoogendyk) (4)
4. South Dakota (Dykstra) (3)
5. Massachusetts (Beatty) (6)
6. Illinois (Sauerburgh) (5)
7. West Virginia (Wolfe) (7)
8. Delaware (O'Donnell) (8)
9. Iowa (Reed) (9)
10. Rhode Island (Tingle) (12)
11. Montana (Kelleher) (10)
12. Arkansas (Green Party) (11)
Sunday, June 15, 2008
House Predictions 2
Gains:
AL-2: Dem
AL-5: Rep
AZ-1: Dem
FL-16: Rep
GA-12: Rep
IL-11: Dem
MN-3: Dem
MS-1: Rep
NJ-3: Dem
NJ-7: Dem
NM-1: Dem
NY-25: Dem
NY-26: Dem
OH-15: Dem
TX-22: Rep
VR-11: Dem
Reps. take 4
Dems take 11
Net Dem Gain of 7
AL-2: Dem
AL-5: Rep
AZ-1: Dem
FL-16: Rep
GA-12: Rep
IL-11: Dem
MN-3: Dem
MS-1: Rep
NJ-3: Dem
NJ-7: Dem
NM-1: Dem
NY-25: Dem
NY-26: Dem
OH-15: Dem
TX-22: Rep
VR-11: Dem
Reps. take 4
Dems take 11
Net Dem Gain of 7
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Senate/Gov projections II
Updated Senate and Gov. rankings. Last rank in ()
Governors:
Dem takeover
1. Missouri (Nixon) (1)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
2. Indiana (Thompson) (2)
Safe GOP
3. Vermont (Symington) (3)
4. North Dakota (Mathern) (4)
5. Utah (Springmeyer) (5)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Washington (Rossi) (1)
2. North Carolina (McCroy) (2)
Safe Dem
3. Delaware (TBD) (3)
4. Montana (Brown) (4)
5. West Virginia (Weeks) (6)
6. New Hampshire (Kenney)(5)
Senate
Dem takeover
1. Virginia (Warner) (1)
2. New Mexico (2)
Lean Dem takeover
3. New Hampshire (Shaheen) (3)
4. Colorado (Udall) (4)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
5. Alaska (Begich) (5)
6. Oregon (Merkley) (7)
7. Mississippi B (Musgrove) (8)
Possible in Dem landslide/Probably GOP
8. North Carolina (Hagen) (6)
9. Minnesota (Franken) (10)
10. Texas (Noriega) (9)
11. Kentucky (Lunsford) (13)
12. Kansas (Slattery) (11)
13. Oklahoma (Rice) (17)
14. Idaho (LaRocco) (12)
Safe GOP
15. Maine (Allen) (14)
16. Nebraska (Kleeb) (15)
17. Wyoming B (Goodenough) (16)
18. Georgia (TBD) (20)
19. Tennessee (TBD) (19)
20. Alabama (Figures) (18)
21. Wyoming A (Rothfuss) (23)
22. Mississippi A (Fleming) (21)
23. South Carolina (Cone) (22)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Louisiana (Kennedy) (1)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
2. New Jersey (Zimmer) (3)
3. South Dakota (Dykstra) (2)
Safe Dem
4. Michigan (Hoogendyk) (7)
5. Illinois (Sauerburgh) (8)
6. Massachusetts (Beatty) (5)
7. West Virginia (Wolfe) (9)
8. Delaware (O'Donnell) (10)
9. Iowa (Reed) (6)
10. Montana (Kelleher) (4)
11. Arkansas (Green Party) (11)
12. Rhode Island (none) (12)
Governors:
Dem takeover
1. Missouri (Nixon) (1)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
2. Indiana (Thompson) (2)
Safe GOP
3. Vermont (Symington) (3)
4. North Dakota (Mathern) (4)
5. Utah (Springmeyer) (5)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Washington (Rossi) (1)
2. North Carolina (McCroy) (2)
Safe Dem
3. Delaware (TBD) (3)
4. Montana (Brown) (4)
5. West Virginia (Weeks) (6)
6. New Hampshire (Kenney)(5)
Senate
Dem takeover
1. Virginia (Warner) (1)
2. New Mexico (2)
Lean Dem takeover
3. New Hampshire (Shaheen) (3)
4. Colorado (Udall) (4)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
5. Alaska (Begich) (5)
6. Oregon (Merkley) (7)
7. Mississippi B (Musgrove) (8)
Possible in Dem landslide/Probably GOP
8. North Carolina (Hagen) (6)
9. Minnesota (Franken) (10)
10. Texas (Noriega) (9)
11. Kentucky (Lunsford) (13)
12. Kansas (Slattery) (11)
13. Oklahoma (Rice) (17)
14. Idaho (LaRocco) (12)
Safe GOP
15. Maine (Allen) (14)
16. Nebraska (Kleeb) (15)
17. Wyoming B (Goodenough) (16)
18. Georgia (TBD) (20)
19. Tennessee (TBD) (19)
20. Alabama (Figures) (18)
21. Wyoming A (Rothfuss) (23)
22. Mississippi A (Fleming) (21)
23. South Carolina (Cone) (22)
Possible GOP takeover/lean Dem
1. Louisiana (Kennedy) (1)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
2. New Jersey (Zimmer) (3)
3. South Dakota (Dykstra) (2)
Safe Dem
4. Michigan (Hoogendyk) (7)
5. Illinois (Sauerburgh) (8)
6. Massachusetts (Beatty) (5)
7. West Virginia (Wolfe) (9)
8. Delaware (O'Donnell) (10)
9. Iowa (Reed) (6)
10. Montana (Kelleher) (4)
11. Arkansas (Green Party) (11)
12. Rhode Island (none) (12)
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
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