Here are my MLB predictions and playoff odds based on one month of play.
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox: AL E: 70% WC: 10%
2. New York Yankees: AL E: 30% WC: 30%
3. Tampa Bay Rays: AL E: no chance WC: 10%
4. Toronto Blue Jays: AL E: No chance WC: No chance
5. Baltimore Orioles: AL E: No Chance WC: No Chance.
- So far the big story in the east has been the starts by Tampa and Baltimore. Of the two I think Tampa is the one more likely to be legit. I expect Baltimore to fall back down to earth in the next month or two and will probably finish last in the division, although I don't rule out a fourth place finnish. Tampa's pitching is for real, they could well give Tampa their first winning season although they are nothing but a long shot for the Wild Card. Toronto is not as bad as they look, and will probably pass at least the Orioles by season's end, but their slow start has likely cost them any chance at a playoff spot. Yankees have been mediorce as always in April, but they will bounce back and probably steal a playoff spot like they always do. Boston leaves April in great shape and there is no reason to think they wont make it back to the playoffs.
AL C:
1. Detroit Tigers: ALC: 50% WC: 15%
2. Cleveland Indians: ALC: 30% WC: 10%
3. Chicago White Sox: ALC 20% WC: 10%
4. Minnesota Twins: ALC: No Chance WC: No Chance
5. Kansas City Royals: ALC: No Chance WC: No Chance
- The season started with a hot Kansas City start and a cold Detroit start. This is not reflective for the season as a whole. Kansas City has some arms (although they have fallen back to earth) and no bats. Detroit's offense is too good for them not to be competitive, and I don't think their pitching will be that bad in the long run. Minnesota even at 13-14 is not for real, and they could easily finish 5th in the division. Cliff Lee is a great talent for Cleveland, so his start may not be that much of a fluke, and if Cleveland can get Lee, Sabathia, and Carmona all going they should be fine. I'm buying into Chicago. So long as their pitching holds up, they have good enough hitting to make a real run.
AL W:
1. LA Angels: ALW: 70% WC: 5%
2. Oakland A's: ALW: 20% WC: 10%
3. Seattle Mariners: ALW: 10% WC: no chance
4. Texas Rangers: ALW: No chance WC: no chance
-This is the LA Angels division. I don't trust the A's enough to jump on their bandwagon, but they have played so well thus far that I have to give them some chance. The Mariners still have a chance if and only if Felix and Bedard are Gods from here on out. The Rangers suck. The Angels have the best offense and probablly the best rotation and bullpen in the division and the west very well may end up being the most lopsided division in baseball.
NL E:
1. New York Mets: NLE: 40% WC: 10%
2. Philledelphia Phillies: NLE: 30% WC: 15%
3. Atlanta Braves: NLE: 25% WC: 10%
4. Flarida Marlins: NLE: 5% WC: 5%
5. Washington Nationals: NLE: no chance WC: No chance
-Florida is in first a mounth in. Don't believe it. Not every player on this team is a prospect, and unless something real strange happens they should fall behind NY, Atlanta, and Philly by season's end. Washington started 3-0 and have since fallen to the worst reccord in the NL. Braves have been lackluster, but they have the pieces to comeback. At one moment you think the Mets will start to put some distance on the other teams, and the next they lose any ground they had. The Phillies look decent, even with a slow start from Howard.
NLC:
1. Chicago Cubs: NLC: 50% WC: 10%
2. Milwaukee Brewers: NLC: 30% WC: 10%
3. St. Louis Cardinals: NLC: 20% WC: 10%
4. Cincinnati Reds: NLC: no chance WC: no chance
5. Houston Astros: NLC: no chance WC: no chance
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: NLC: no chance WC: no chance
- There are clearly two haves of this division. Of the lower half only Cincy has a future in the next few years, and will probably have a good month or two this year. Houston has too many roster fillers in a division that is really not as bad as its reputation the last few years. Pittsburgh is just a mess and I will go out on a limb and say they will eventually reach twenty straight loseing seasons. I don't think St. Louis is a fluke and have never understood why people thought they were so bad at the begining of the year. Milwaukee has a lot of talent, but you just feel they will fall apart at some point this year. Finnaly the Cubs are the clear favorite, with no glaring weaknesses I can see, but we can always wait for the playoffs for them to reach the playoffs to fall apart, so we can listen to more curse crap for another year.
NL W:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: NLW: 70% WC: 10%
2. LA Dodgers: NLW: 25% WC: 10%
3. Colorado Rockies: NLW: 5% WC: 5%
4. San Diego Padres: NLW: no chance WC: no chance
5. San Francisco Giants: NLW: no Chance WC: no chance
- How can you not take the Diamondbacks at this point. If you hear anyone criticize the Diamondbacks at this point, they are full of shit. No one else in the division has done much. The Dodgers are the closest, but have probably underachived thus far. The Giants pitching is for real, but they probably have the least talented offense in baseball. No the Rockies are not this bad, and I expect them to get back around .500 by seasons end, but this start will probably prevent them from being a playoff team again. Nothing really to say about San Diego, they could be a 65 win team or a 85 win team, either way they wont be relevant.
Playoff predictions:
Division series:
LA Angels over New York in 5
Boston over Detroit in 4
Arizona over Philly in 4
NY Mets over Chicago in 3
Championship series:
Boston over LA Angels in 5
NY Mets over Arizona in 6
World Series:
BOston over NY Mets in 4
AL CY Young so far: Cliff Lee
AL MVP so far: Manny Ramirez
AL Rookie of the Year: David Murphy
NL CY Young so far: Brandon Webb
NL MVP so far: Chase Utley
NL Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Top Sonics Rivalries
This will probably be my last nba post before my f-you nba post I will do after the Sonics actually move. Anyways here is my list of the top 10 Sonics rivalries.
10. Chicago Bulls: Jordan and Co. ended the sonics championship run back in the 1995-96 season.
9. Memphis Grizzlies: More of a rival when they were in Vancouver, but I will honor the legacy of the Vancouver Grizzlies with a spot on the list.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: The Sonics and the wolves play in the same division, but there has not been any major events in the rivalry as of yet.
7. Houston Rockets: Along with the Jazz and Blazers the Rockets were among the Sonics biggest rivals in the west in the mid 90s. From 93 to 97 the Sonics and the Rockets played each other in the playoffs three times with the Sonics having a 2 to 1 edge.
6. Utah Jazz: The Jazz were one of the Sonics biggest foes in the mid 90s with each team having two superstars, Malone and Stockton for the Jazz and Kemp and Payton for the Sonics. Sonics and Jazz have also played each other in the playoffs four times in my lifetime.
5. LA Lakers: Everyone in the west should hate the Lakers. The Sonics have played the lakers seven times in the playoffs with the Lakers winning five times.
4. Washington Wizards: The Sonics and the then Washington bullets played in back to back nba championships with each team taking one.
3. Denver Nuggets: The Sonics and Nuggets play in the same division and have faced each other in the playoffs several times. The Sonics were victims of one of the biggest upsets in NBA history at the hands of the Nuggets back in 1994, when the one seed sonics were upset by the eight seed Nuggets in the first round.
2. Portland Trailblazers: The only legitimate geographical rival of any of Seattle's pro sports teams. Portland is also built on Seattle talent from coach Nate Macmillan to young star and Seattle native Brandon Roy. The glory days of the two teams also somewhat intersect in the late 70s and mid to late 90s.
1. Oklahoma City whatevers: This is not an on-court fight, but a fight for the very survival of the team. The nba and the ownership is doing everything in their power to ensure that OKC wins and Seattle loses. If Seattle wins it will be the greatest upset in sports history.
10. Chicago Bulls: Jordan and Co. ended the sonics championship run back in the 1995-96 season.
9. Memphis Grizzlies: More of a rival when they were in Vancouver, but I will honor the legacy of the Vancouver Grizzlies with a spot on the list.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: The Sonics and the wolves play in the same division, but there has not been any major events in the rivalry as of yet.
7. Houston Rockets: Along with the Jazz and Blazers the Rockets were among the Sonics biggest rivals in the west in the mid 90s. From 93 to 97 the Sonics and the Rockets played each other in the playoffs three times with the Sonics having a 2 to 1 edge.
6. Utah Jazz: The Jazz were one of the Sonics biggest foes in the mid 90s with each team having two superstars, Malone and Stockton for the Jazz and Kemp and Payton for the Sonics. Sonics and Jazz have also played each other in the playoffs four times in my lifetime.
5. LA Lakers: Everyone in the west should hate the Lakers. The Sonics have played the lakers seven times in the playoffs with the Lakers winning five times.
4. Washington Wizards: The Sonics and the then Washington bullets played in back to back nba championships with each team taking one.
3. Denver Nuggets: The Sonics and Nuggets play in the same division and have faced each other in the playoffs several times. The Sonics were victims of one of the biggest upsets in NBA history at the hands of the Nuggets back in 1994, when the one seed sonics were upset by the eight seed Nuggets in the first round.
2. Portland Trailblazers: The only legitimate geographical rival of any of Seattle's pro sports teams. Portland is also built on Seattle talent from coach Nate Macmillan to young star and Seattle native Brandon Roy. The glory days of the two teams also somewhat intersect in the late 70s and mid to late 90s.
1. Oklahoma City whatevers: This is not an on-court fight, but a fight for the very survival of the team. The nba and the ownership is doing everything in their power to ensure that OKC wins and Seattle loses. If Seattle wins it will be the greatest upset in sports history.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Top Mariners Rivalries
One thing about Seattle Sports that I have always felt was missing is rivalries. Our isolation and general badness has prevented us up in the great northwest from developing real rivalries. Over the next few days I will attempt to do my part to fix the problem by listing the various Seattle teams top "rivals" and why we should hate them. Today I will start with the Mariners.
10. Boston Red Sox: They make the list because I hate their fans.
9. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles make the list because the knocked what was perhaps the most talented Mariners team ever out in the first round back in 1997. The Mariners who were anchored by Griffy, Johnson, and Rodriguez were knock out in four games in the first round of the playoffs, making it the worst playoff performance ever by a Mariner team.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays were the Mariners partner expansion team back in 1977, and preceded to make the Mariners look horrible for the first 15 years of their existence. By the mid 1980s while the Mariners were stuck in mediocrity to downright awfulness, the Blue Jays had become perennial contenders and eventually won back to back world series in 92 and 93. Post strike Mariners have gotten the better end of the stick, with the Jay stuck behind the Yankees and Red Sox. Mariners and Blue Jays also compete for fans in western Canada.
7. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers came into being as the Seattle Pilots only to have the team taken away from us by now commissioner Bud Selig after only one year in Seattle.
6. San Diego Padres: An artificial rivalry, but the MLB says we are "natural rivals" and we share the same spring training complex.
5. Cleveland Indians: Almost every years that the M's have been good (with the exception of 2002 and 2003) the Indians have been good also. The Mariners and the Indians have played each other twice in the playoffs with them ending the Mariners miracle season in 95 and almost pulling off the upset in 01. That being said the Indians are my favorite team besides the M's.
4. Texas Rangers: From 1996 to 1999 the Rangers were the Mariners biggest opponent in the AL West, with the Rangers having the upper hand by winning the division in 1996, 1998, and 1999. Probably the biggest reason to hate the rangers is them signing Alex Rodriguez to that ridiculous contract, taking him away from the Mariners and accelerating the rise in salaries.
3. New York Yankees: I hate to put them this high since we probably wouldn't make the Yankees top 15 rivals, but there is good reason to hate them if you are a Mariners fan. Out of the Mariners four postseasons, we have played the Yanks in three of them. The first time in 95 was the teams greatest postseason triumph. The mariners loss the first two games to get within one game of elimination, but the Mariners came back to win the last three, including a series winning walk-off double in the 10th inning by Edgar Martinez in game five. The last two playoff series against the Yankees wernt so good for the Mariners, with the Yankees beating us back to back years in the ALCS in 2000 and 2001.
2. Oakland A's: The A's have been the ultimate Mariner killers over the years. The A's were the Mariners main competition during the 2000 to 2003 seasons, and were the only team to win a series in the regular season against the 116 win Mariners. The most striking display of Mariner ineptitude against the A's came in 2006 where the Mariners went 2-17 against the A's effectively giving the division to them.
1. Los Angeles Angels: The Angels are from perhaps the most evil hole on the west coast, Orange County. Several times throughout the M's history the Mariners and the Angels have had quite good races for the playoffs. Last year the M's fought tooth to tooth with the Angels for the division before a September collapse. In 2002 the Angels helped deny the M's a playoff spot in spite of the Mariners winning 93 games. And of course there was 95 when a the Angels collapsed down the stretch and the Mariners made an incredible run to force an one game playoff game for the division championship, which the Mariners won.
10. Boston Red Sox: They make the list because I hate their fans.
9. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles make the list because the knocked what was perhaps the most talented Mariners team ever out in the first round back in 1997. The Mariners who were anchored by Griffy, Johnson, and Rodriguez were knock out in four games in the first round of the playoffs, making it the worst playoff performance ever by a Mariner team.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays were the Mariners partner expansion team back in 1977, and preceded to make the Mariners look horrible for the first 15 years of their existence. By the mid 1980s while the Mariners were stuck in mediocrity to downright awfulness, the Blue Jays had become perennial contenders and eventually won back to back world series in 92 and 93. Post strike Mariners have gotten the better end of the stick, with the Jay stuck behind the Yankees and Red Sox. Mariners and Blue Jays also compete for fans in western Canada.
7. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers came into being as the Seattle Pilots only to have the team taken away from us by now commissioner Bud Selig after only one year in Seattle.
6. San Diego Padres: An artificial rivalry, but the MLB says we are "natural rivals" and we share the same spring training complex.
5. Cleveland Indians: Almost every years that the M's have been good (with the exception of 2002 and 2003) the Indians have been good also. The Mariners and the Indians have played each other twice in the playoffs with them ending the Mariners miracle season in 95 and almost pulling off the upset in 01. That being said the Indians are my favorite team besides the M's.
4. Texas Rangers: From 1996 to 1999 the Rangers were the Mariners biggest opponent in the AL West, with the Rangers having the upper hand by winning the division in 1996, 1998, and 1999. Probably the biggest reason to hate the rangers is them signing Alex Rodriguez to that ridiculous contract, taking him away from the Mariners and accelerating the rise in salaries.
3. New York Yankees: I hate to put them this high since we probably wouldn't make the Yankees top 15 rivals, but there is good reason to hate them if you are a Mariners fan. Out of the Mariners four postseasons, we have played the Yanks in three of them. The first time in 95 was the teams greatest postseason triumph. The mariners loss the first two games to get within one game of elimination, but the Mariners came back to win the last three, including a series winning walk-off double in the 10th inning by Edgar Martinez in game five. The last two playoff series against the Yankees wernt so good for the Mariners, with the Yankees beating us back to back years in the ALCS in 2000 and 2001.
2. Oakland A's: The A's have been the ultimate Mariner killers over the years. The A's were the Mariners main competition during the 2000 to 2003 seasons, and were the only team to win a series in the regular season against the 116 win Mariners. The most striking display of Mariner ineptitude against the A's came in 2006 where the Mariners went 2-17 against the A's effectively giving the division to them.
1. Los Angeles Angels: The Angels are from perhaps the most evil hole on the west coast, Orange County. Several times throughout the M's history the Mariners and the Angels have had quite good races for the playoffs. Last year the M's fought tooth to tooth with the Angels for the division before a September collapse. In 2002 the Angels helped deny the M's a playoff spot in spite of the Mariners winning 93 games. And of course there was 95 when a the Angels collapsed down the stretch and the Mariners made an incredible run to force an one game playoff game for the division championship, which the Mariners won.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Penn Primary Predictions
It has been a while since my last primary/caucus prediction. A loss by Clinton is a death blow for her, and a narrow win may also be a death blow. Polls have been all over the place for this one ranging from a double didget Clinton victory to an Obama victory. Obama has not had a good last few weeks, and I think it will translate into a sizable Clinton win, although Obama will probably still be the Democratic candidate.
Clinton 58%
Obama 42%
Clinton 58%
Obama 42%
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
2008 Playoff Predictions
East Round 1
Boston over Atlanta in 5
Detroit over Philly in 6
Toronto over Orlando in 6
Cleveland over Washington in 4
West Round 1
LA Lakers over Denver in 6
Dallas over New Orleans in 5
Phoenix over San Antonio in 6
Houston over Utah in 5
East Round 2
Boston over Cleveland in 7
Detroit over Toronto in 4
West Round 2
LA Lakers over Houston in 4
Phoenix over Dallas in 6
East Championship
Detroit over Boston in 7
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 7
NBA Championship
Detroit over Phoenix in 6
So ends my final year of giving a shit about the NBA. May it collapse under its failed economic system.
Boston over Atlanta in 5
Detroit over Philly in 6
Toronto over Orlando in 6
Cleveland over Washington in 4
West Round 1
LA Lakers over Denver in 6
Dallas over New Orleans in 5
Phoenix over San Antonio in 6
Houston over Utah in 5
East Round 2
Boston over Cleveland in 7
Detroit over Toronto in 4
West Round 2
LA Lakers over Houston in 4
Phoenix over Dallas in 6
East Championship
Detroit over Boston in 7
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 7
NBA Championship
Detroit over Phoenix in 6
So ends my final year of giving a shit about the NBA. May it collapse under its failed economic system.
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