Thursday, November 1, 2007

November Elections Predictions

Ohio 5th District Primary: The 5th is heavily Republican with a Cook partisen voting index of R+10, so the winner of the Republican Primary is most likely the winner. The Democrats have two candidates, George Mayes, and owner of a DJ company and Robin Weirauch, a public administrator who was the Democratic party's candidate in the 5th in 04 and 05. Weirauch's name rec. should be enough to easily get her the nomination and lose the seat for the third time. The Republicans have five candidates with state senator Steve Buehrer and state rep. Bob Latta the most serious of the five. Two weeks ago the Latta campaine released a poll showing him 19 points ahead of Bueher, however earlier this week the club for growth releaced a poll showing Bueher with a 3 point lead over Latta. Five days away from the election it seems as though either Latta or Buehrer could win. Prediction: Latta by 2 to 5 points.

Kentucky Governor: Along with the Louisiana gubernatorial election last month, the Kentucky gubernatorial election is the most anticipated election of 2007. The Democrats have nominated ex-Lieutenant Governor Steave Beshear for governor and state Senator Daniel Mongiardo for Lt. Governor. The Republicans have renominated Governor Ernie Fletcher and have nominated Robbie Rudolph for Lt. Governor. Ever since Fletcher defeated ex-Congresswoman Ann Northrup in the primary, all the polls have shown Beshear winning by a large margine, since Governor Fletcher is viewed as corrupt and is highly unpopular with most of the state. Prediction: Beshear by 12 to 18 points.

Mississippi Governor: The Mississippi governor's race has been relativly ignored since the popular republican governor Haley Barbour is running for re-election. Barbour's Democratic opponent will be personal injury lawyer John Eaves. The Democrats really never had a chance in this race, so Barbour should move on to re-election easily. Prediction: Barbour by 15 to 20 points.

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