October election Predictions

Louisiana: The incombents will all win reelection. In the governor's race, Jindal will get the most votes by a wide margin, the only question is whether he will get to 50% to avoid a run off. Recent polls show Jindal at between about 60% to about 45%, however there seems to be a downward trend to his numbers. If Jindal fails to get to 50%, his oponent will most likely be Louisina State Senator Walter Boasso. Earlier this year Boasso switched his party registration back to the Democratic party (he had originaly been a Democrat who joined with the Republicans in the 1990's). Independent candidate John Georges, CEO of Imperial Trading Company, has come within one or two precentage points in some recent polls to Boasso.

Prediction: Jindal will receive 48% or 49%, comeing just shy of securing election. Jindal's opponent will be Boasso, who beats out Georges with 12% to 20% of the vote. Jindal will be heavily favored to win in the run-off.

Massachussets 5th CD: The front runner for this seat is Democrat Niki Tsongas. The Republican opponant is Retiered Air Force Officer Jim Ogonowski. Many Republicans feel they have a shot at the seat, since it is among the least liberal in Massachussets. Ogonowiski is running on an anti-tax, anti-immigration, and anti-establishment platform.

Prediction: The Republicans often sight a Survay USA poll from last month, which showes Niki Tsongas with a 51% to 41% advantage over Ogonowski as proof that Tsongas may be vaulnerable. However the 5th while it is one of the more moderate democratic seats, is still solidly Democratic with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9. The Media attention that Ogonowski has received will likely prevent Tsongas from wining by an extream blowout, however I see little chance that Ogonowski could win. I predict Tsongas by 8 to 15 points.