ALDS
Chicago WS over TB in 4
LA Angels over Boston in 5
NLDS
LA Dodgers over Chicago Cubs in 5
Milwaukee over Philly in 3
ALCS
Chicago WS over LA Angels in 5
NLCS
Milwaukee over Philly in 6
WS
Milwaukee over Chicago WS in 4
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
2008-2009 NFL Predictions
AFC East
1. New England
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cincinnati
2. Cleveland
3. Pittsburgh
4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis
2. Houston
3. Jacksonville
4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City
AFC Wild Card One: New York Jets
AFC Wild Card Two: Cleveland
NFC East
1. Dallas
2. New York Giants
3. Philadelphia
4. Washington
NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Detroit
3. Green Bay
4. Chicago
NFC South
1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. St. Louis
NFC Wild Card One: New York Giants
NFC Wild Card Two: Detroit
Playoffs Round One:
San Diego over Cleveland
New York Jets over Cincinnati
New Orleans over Detroit
Seattle over New York Giants
Playoffs Round Two:
New England over San Diego
New York Jets over Indianapolis
Seattle over Minnesota
New Orleans over Dallas
Playoffs Round Three:
New England over New York Jets
New Orleans over Seattle
Super Bowl:
New England over New Orleans
1. New England
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cincinnati
2. Cleveland
3. Pittsburgh
4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis
2. Houston
3. Jacksonville
4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Denver
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City
AFC Wild Card One: New York Jets
AFC Wild Card Two: Cleveland
NFC East
1. Dallas
2. New York Giants
3. Philadelphia
4. Washington
NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Detroit
3. Green Bay
4. Chicago
NFC South
1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. St. Louis
NFC Wild Card One: New York Giants
NFC Wild Card Two: Detroit
Playoffs Round One:
San Diego over Cleveland
New York Jets over Cincinnati
New Orleans over Detroit
Seattle over New York Giants
Playoffs Round Two:
New England over San Diego
New York Jets over Indianapolis
Seattle over Minnesota
New Orleans over Dallas
Playoffs Round Three:
New England over New York Jets
New Orleans over Seattle
Super Bowl:
New England over New Orleans
Thursday, August 7, 2008
August Primary endorcement
Like usual most of the WA state wide races have dull primaries.
-It will be a Gregoire Rossi rematch
-LT. Gov is a useless position
-Sec of State, AG, Insurance Com., and St. Auditor have unbeatable incumbents
-Public lands has only two candidates
Which leaves us with two possibly interesting races. The Superintendent of Public Instruction and State Treasurer. I don't really care about the SPI, although it will probably be the race with the most passion other than Governor. Which leaves me with the State Treasurer which puts forth three very qualified candidates. One of the spots in general is certain Republican Allan Martin should take in most of the Republican votes alonf with a decent number of independents and Democratic votes. The second spot on the ballot will go to one of the two Democrats on the ballot, Sate rep Jim McIntire and Economist Chang Mook Sohn. Of the two I will vote for Sohn. While Mcintire is qualified I don't like McIntire's goal of making the Treasurer's spot more partisan by taking an activist role. Sohn on the other hand has done very well as a revenue forecaster for the state over the past 20 years, and has shone himself to be impartial in a position that demands the politician to be both competent and Impartial. All three candidates pass the competency test, but only Allan and Sohn pass the Impartial test.
My votes in state wide races:
Governor: Gregoire (D)
Lt. Gov: Jim Wiest (R)
Sec of State: Sam Reed (R)
Treasurer: Chang Mook Sohn (D)
Auditor: Brian Sonntag (D)
Attorney General: John Ladenburg (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands: Peter Goldmark (D)
SPI: Terry Bergeson (NP)
Insurence Commissioner: John Adams (R)
SC Justice 3: Mary Fairhurst (NP)
SC Justice 4: Charles Johnson (NP)
-It will be a Gregoire Rossi rematch
-LT. Gov is a useless position
-Sec of State, AG, Insurance Com., and St. Auditor have unbeatable incumbents
-Public lands has only two candidates
Which leaves us with two possibly interesting races. The Superintendent of Public Instruction and State Treasurer. I don't really care about the SPI, although it will probably be the race with the most passion other than Governor. Which leaves me with the State Treasurer which puts forth three very qualified candidates. One of the spots in general is certain Republican Allan Martin should take in most of the Republican votes alonf with a decent number of independents and Democratic votes. The second spot on the ballot will go to one of the two Democrats on the ballot, Sate rep Jim McIntire and Economist Chang Mook Sohn. Of the two I will vote for Sohn. While Mcintire is qualified I don't like McIntire's goal of making the Treasurer's spot more partisan by taking an activist role. Sohn on the other hand has done very well as a revenue forecaster for the state over the past 20 years, and has shone himself to be impartial in a position that demands the politician to be both competent and Impartial. All three candidates pass the competency test, but only Allan and Sohn pass the Impartial test.
My votes in state wide races:
Governor: Gregoire (D)
Lt. Gov: Jim Wiest (R)
Sec of State: Sam Reed (R)
Treasurer: Chang Mook Sohn (D)
Auditor: Brian Sonntag (D)
Attorney General: John Ladenburg (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands: Peter Goldmark (D)
SPI: Terry Bergeson (NP)
Insurence Commissioner: John Adams (R)
SC Justice 3: Mary Fairhurst (NP)
SC Justice 4: Charles Johnson (NP)
Friday, August 1, 2008
MLB 2/3 odds
ALE
1. New York Yankees: E: 60% WC: 30% PR:94-68 BCR: 100-62
2. Boston Red Sox: E: 25% WC: 20% PR: 92-70 BCR: 95-67
3. Tampa Bay Rays: E: 15% WC: 15% PR: 90-72 BCR: 95-67
4. Toronto Blue Jays: E 0% WC: 5% PR: 83-79 BCR: 88-74
5. Baltimore Orioles: E: 0% WC: 0% PR: 68-94 BCR: 75-87
-Satan has not called George home yet, so the Yankees should make the playoffs once again. The only thing that could stop New York is the back end of their rotation where they have Rasner and Ponson who are both poor pitchers. The Yankees could still add some one like Jarrod Washburn or may call up Hughes, Kennedy or even Wang. Hughes and Kennedy are both unproven in the majors and Wang's return may still be doubtful. Bay is a very good player, but probably a down grade from Manny, which could hurt in a very close race. Boston will probably still hold on to the wild card, but they have looked very human the past month. Tampa may have the best rotation of the big three in the east, but they need the offense to turn around in order to hold onto a playoff spot. Toronto is only 6.5 back in the Wild Card and has a very good rotation and bullpen. In order for Toronto to make a run they need to find some hitting from some unknown source. Baltimore has been better than expected, but I think they will end up with under 70 wins.
ALC
1. Detroit Tigers: C: 40% WC: 5% PR: 88-74 BCR: 90-72
2. Chicago White Sox: C: 35% WC: 10% PR: 87-75 BCR: 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins: C: 25% WC: 10% PR: 85-77 BCR: 90-72
4. Cleveland Indians: C:0% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 81-81
5. Kansas City Royals: C: 0% WC: 0% PR: 72-90 BCR: 78-84
-Tigers have climbed to only 5.5 back and are in prime position to make a run. Tigers have the best offense on paper and the rotation and bullpen should be better, while WS and Twins could very well be worse. The White Sox are fighting off two teams and the Starting Pitching is crashing back down to reality. That being said the White Sox do indeed have a solid team and probably have fewer holes than the Tigers and Twins. I don't trust the Twins to maintain what they have done for the final two months. Francisco Liriono could be the biggest late season addition in the division. Cleveland and Kansas City- pass.
ALW
1. Los Angeles Angels: W: 95% WC: 0% PR: 98-64 BCR: 102-60
2. Texas Rangers: W: 5% WC: 5% PR: 85-77 BCR: 88-74
3. Oakland A's: W:0% WC: 0% PR: 72-90 BCR: 82-80
4. Seattle Mariners: W: 0% WC: 0% PR: 65-97 BCR: 70-92
- No team can make a run at the Angels. The only way they can miss is if they implode. In the small chance the Angels do implode it will be the Rangers, who will probably win around 85 games. Rangers may make a run at the WC if they mysteriously find some pitching. Oakland will continue to fall and finish well behind Texas. Mariners= train wreck.
NLE
1. New York Mets: E: 50% WC: 20% PR: 90-72 BCR: 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies: E: 35% WC: 30% PR: 88-74 BCR: 93-69
3. Florida Marlins: E: 15% WC: 10% PR: 84-78 BCR: 88-74
4. Atlanta Braves: E: 0% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 81-81
5. Washington Nationals: E: 0% WC: 0% PR: 60-102 BCR: 65-97
-The Mets are the best all around team in the east, but not elite in any area. Philly has the best offense in the NL, and pitching may be just good enough to make the playoffs. The Marlins are the Twins of the NL, they will probably slip some, but at this point you have to take them seriously. Braves were killed by injuries and the Nats suck.
NLC
1. Chicago Cubs: C: 80% WC: 10% PR: 93-69 BCR: 98-64
2. Milwaukee Brewers: C: 10% WC: 20% PR: 87-75 BCR: 91-71
3. St. Louis Cardinals: C: 10% WC: 10% PR: 85-77 BCR: 88-74
4. Cincinnati Reds: C: 0% WC: 0% PR: 81-81 BCR: 84-78
5. Houston Astros: C:0% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 81-81
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: C: 0% WC: 0% PR: 72-90 BCR: 78-84
-The Cubs have won the east. The Brew Crew are playing for the Wild Card and the Cardinals are hopeing someone collapses. The Reds wont make the playoffs, but could have a winning record. The Astros are stupid, and the Pirates are the same that they have been for the last 17 years.
NLW
1. Los Angeles Dodgers W: 70% WC: 0% PR: 86-76 BCR: 88-74
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: W: 25% WC: 0% PR: 83-79 BCR: 86-76
3. Colorado Rockies: W: 5% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 80-82
4. San Diego Padres: W: 0% WC: 0% PR: 68-94 BCR: 72-90
5. San Francisco Giants: W: 0% WC: 0% PR: 66-96 BCR: 72-90
- Dodgers made the moves to give them the edge in the division. If the moves don't work, then it will be Arizona. If lightning strikes twice it will be Colorado. Giants and Padres don't matter.
ALDS
LAA over BOS in 5
NYY over DET in 4
NLDS
CHC over PHI in 5
LAD over NYM in 5
ALCS
NYY over LAA in 6
CHC over LAD in 4
WS
NYY over CHC in 5
1. New York Yankees: E: 60% WC: 30% PR:94-68 BCR: 100-62
2. Boston Red Sox: E: 25% WC: 20% PR: 92-70 BCR: 95-67
3. Tampa Bay Rays: E: 15% WC: 15% PR: 90-72 BCR: 95-67
4. Toronto Blue Jays: E 0% WC: 5% PR: 83-79 BCR: 88-74
5. Baltimore Orioles: E: 0% WC: 0% PR: 68-94 BCR: 75-87
-Satan has not called George home yet, so the Yankees should make the playoffs once again. The only thing that could stop New York is the back end of their rotation where they have Rasner and Ponson who are both poor pitchers. The Yankees could still add some one like Jarrod Washburn or may call up Hughes, Kennedy or even Wang. Hughes and Kennedy are both unproven in the majors and Wang's return may still be doubtful. Bay is a very good player, but probably a down grade from Manny, which could hurt in a very close race. Boston will probably still hold on to the wild card, but they have looked very human the past month. Tampa may have the best rotation of the big three in the east, but they need the offense to turn around in order to hold onto a playoff spot. Toronto is only 6.5 back in the Wild Card and has a very good rotation and bullpen. In order for Toronto to make a run they need to find some hitting from some unknown source. Baltimore has been better than expected, but I think they will end up with under 70 wins.
ALC
1. Detroit Tigers: C: 40% WC: 5% PR: 88-74 BCR: 90-72
2. Chicago White Sox: C: 35% WC: 10% PR: 87-75 BCR: 92-70
3. Minnesota Twins: C: 25% WC: 10% PR: 85-77 BCR: 90-72
4. Cleveland Indians: C:0% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 81-81
5. Kansas City Royals: C: 0% WC: 0% PR: 72-90 BCR: 78-84
-Tigers have climbed to only 5.5 back and are in prime position to make a run. Tigers have the best offense on paper and the rotation and bullpen should be better, while WS and Twins could very well be worse. The White Sox are fighting off two teams and the Starting Pitching is crashing back down to reality. That being said the White Sox do indeed have a solid team and probably have fewer holes than the Tigers and Twins. I don't trust the Twins to maintain what they have done for the final two months. Francisco Liriono could be the biggest late season addition in the division. Cleveland and Kansas City- pass.
ALW
1. Los Angeles Angels: W: 95% WC: 0% PR: 98-64 BCR: 102-60
2. Texas Rangers: W: 5% WC: 5% PR: 85-77 BCR: 88-74
3. Oakland A's: W:0% WC: 0% PR: 72-90 BCR: 82-80
4. Seattle Mariners: W: 0% WC: 0% PR: 65-97 BCR: 70-92
- No team can make a run at the Angels. The only way they can miss is if they implode. In the small chance the Angels do implode it will be the Rangers, who will probably win around 85 games. Rangers may make a run at the WC if they mysteriously find some pitching. Oakland will continue to fall and finish well behind Texas. Mariners= train wreck.
NLE
1. New York Mets: E: 50% WC: 20% PR: 90-72 BCR: 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies: E: 35% WC: 30% PR: 88-74 BCR: 93-69
3. Florida Marlins: E: 15% WC: 10% PR: 84-78 BCR: 88-74
4. Atlanta Braves: E: 0% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 81-81
5. Washington Nationals: E: 0% WC: 0% PR: 60-102 BCR: 65-97
-The Mets are the best all around team in the east, but not elite in any area. Philly has the best offense in the NL, and pitching may be just good enough to make the playoffs. The Marlins are the Twins of the NL, they will probably slip some, but at this point you have to take them seriously. Braves were killed by injuries and the Nats suck.
NLC
1. Chicago Cubs: C: 80% WC: 10% PR: 93-69 BCR: 98-64
2. Milwaukee Brewers: C: 10% WC: 20% PR: 87-75 BCR: 91-71
3. St. Louis Cardinals: C: 10% WC: 10% PR: 85-77 BCR: 88-74
4. Cincinnati Reds: C: 0% WC: 0% PR: 81-81 BCR: 84-78
5. Houston Astros: C:0% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 81-81
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: C: 0% WC: 0% PR: 72-90 BCR: 78-84
-The Cubs have won the east. The Brew Crew are playing for the Wild Card and the Cardinals are hopeing someone collapses. The Reds wont make the playoffs, but could have a winning record. The Astros are stupid, and the Pirates are the same that they have been for the last 17 years.
NLW
1. Los Angeles Dodgers W: 70% WC: 0% PR: 86-76 BCR: 88-74
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: W: 25% WC: 0% PR: 83-79 BCR: 86-76
3. Colorado Rockies: W: 5% WC: 0% PR: 75-87 BCR: 80-82
4. San Diego Padres: W: 0% WC: 0% PR: 68-94 BCR: 72-90
5. San Francisco Giants: W: 0% WC: 0% PR: 66-96 BCR: 72-90
- Dodgers made the moves to give them the edge in the division. If the moves don't work, then it will be Arizona. If lightning strikes twice it will be Colorado. Giants and Padres don't matter.
ALDS
LAA over BOS in 5
NYY over DET in 4
NLDS
CHC over PHI in 5
LAD over NYM in 5
ALCS
NYY over LAA in 6
CHC over LAD in 4
WS
NYY over CHC in 5
Monday, July 21, 2008
Senate/Gov Projections IV
Updated rankings Previous ranking in ()
Governors:
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
1. Missouri (Nixon) (1)
2. Indiana (Thompson) (2)
Safe GOP
3. Vermont (Symington) (3)
4. North Dakota (Mathern) (4)
5. Utah (Springmeyer) (5)
Toss up/GOP takeover
1. Washington (Rossi) (1)
2. North Carolina (McCroy) (2)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
3. Delaware (TBD) (3)
Safe Dem
4. West Virginia (Weeks) (5)
5. New Hampshire (Kenney)(6)
6. Montana (Brown) (4)
Senate
Dem takeover
1. Virginia (Warner) (1)
2. New Mexico (Udall) (2)
3. Colorado (Udall) (4)
4. New Hampshire (Shaheen) (3)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
5. Oregon (Merkley) (7)
6. Alaska (Begich) (5)
7. Mississippi B (Musgrove) (6)
Possible in Dem landslide/Probably GOP
8. Kentucky (Lunsford) (8)
9. Maine (Allen) (13)
10. Minnesota (Franken) (10)
11. North Carolina (Hagen) (9)
12. Texas (Noriega) (12)
13. Oklahoma (Rice) (14)
14. Idaho (LaRocco) (15)
15. Kansas (Slattery) (11)
16. Nebraska (Kleeb) (16)
17. Georgia (TBD) (17)
Safe GOP
18. Wyoming B (Goodenough) (19)
19. Tennessee (TBD) (18)
20. Wyoming A (Rothfuss) (20)
21. Alabama (Figures) (21)
22. South Carolina (Conley) (23)
23. Mississippi A (Fleming) (22)
GOP Tossup
1. Louisiana (Kennedy) (1)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
2. New Jersey (Zimmer) (2)
Safe Dem
3. South Dakota (Dykstra) (4)
4. Michigan (Hoogendyk) (3)
5. Illinois (Sauerburgh) (6)
6. West Virginia (Wolfe) (7)
7. Iowa (Reed) (9)
8. Massachusetts (Beatty) (5)
9. Delaware (O'Donnell) (8)
10. Rhode Island (Tingle) (10)
11. Montana (Kelleher) (11)
12. Arkansas (Green Party) (12)
Governors:
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
1. Missouri (Nixon) (1)
2. Indiana (Thompson) (2)
Safe GOP
3. Vermont (Symington) (3)
4. North Dakota (Mathern) (4)
5. Utah (Springmeyer) (5)
Toss up/GOP takeover
1. Washington (Rossi) (1)
2. North Carolina (McCroy) (2)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
3. Delaware (TBD) (3)
Safe Dem
4. West Virginia (Weeks) (5)
5. New Hampshire (Kenney)(6)
6. Montana (Brown) (4)
Senate
Dem takeover
1. Virginia (Warner) (1)
2. New Mexico (Udall) (2)
3. Colorado (Udall) (4)
4. New Hampshire (Shaheen) (3)
Possible Dem takeover/lean GOP
5. Oregon (Merkley) (7)
6. Alaska (Begich) (5)
7. Mississippi B (Musgrove) (6)
Possible in Dem landslide/Probably GOP
8. Kentucky (Lunsford) (8)
9. Maine (Allen) (13)
10. Minnesota (Franken) (10)
11. North Carolina (Hagen) (9)
12. Texas (Noriega) (12)
13. Oklahoma (Rice) (14)
14. Idaho (LaRocco) (15)
15. Kansas (Slattery) (11)
16. Nebraska (Kleeb) (16)
17. Georgia (TBD) (17)
Safe GOP
18. Wyoming B (Goodenough) (19)
19. Tennessee (TBD) (18)
20. Wyoming A (Rothfuss) (20)
21. Alabama (Figures) (21)
22. South Carolina (Conley) (23)
23. Mississippi A (Fleming) (22)
GOP Tossup
1. Louisiana (Kennedy) (1)
Possible in GOP landslide/Probably Dem
2. New Jersey (Zimmer) (2)
Safe Dem
3. South Dakota (Dykstra) (4)
4. Michigan (Hoogendyk) (3)
5. Illinois (Sauerburgh) (6)
6. West Virginia (Wolfe) (7)
7. Iowa (Reed) (9)
8. Massachusetts (Beatty) (5)
9. Delaware (O'Donnell) (8)
10. Rhode Island (Tingle) (10)
11. Montana (Kelleher) (11)
12. Arkansas (Green Party) (12)
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Wyoming VP Rankings
Wyoming Democrats
Dave Freudenthal: Gov, Ranking: 6, Can't bring in WY, but may help a little in other Mtn. west states.
Wyoming Republicans
Mike Enzi: Sen, Ranking: 5, A safe conservative.
John Barrasso: Sen, Ranking; 3, Has less than a year in office.
Barbara Cubin: Rep WY-AL, Ranking: 2, Unpopular with almost everyone.
Dave Freudenthal: Gov, Ranking: 6, Can't bring in WY, but may help a little in other Mtn. west states.
Wyoming Republicans
Mike Enzi: Sen, Ranking: 5, A safe conservative.
John Barrasso: Sen, Ranking; 3, Has less than a year in office.
Barbara Cubin: Rep WY-AL, Ranking: 2, Unpopular with almost everyone.
Wisconsin VP Rankings
Wisconsin Democrats
Jim Doyle: Gov, Ranking: 4, Has been a mediocre Gov.
Herb Kohl: Sen, Ranking; 3, Too old.
Russ Feingold: Sen, Ranking: 5, Loved by the base may hurt with the center.
Tammy Baldwin: Rep WI-2, Ranking: 5, Could help with base and Clinton supporters.
Ron Kind: Rep Wi-3, Ranking: 5, One of several young Wisconsin Reps.
Gwen Moore: Rep WI-4, Ranking: 3, Only 4 years in Congress.
Dave Obey: Rep WI-7, Ranking: 4, Almost 40 years in congress, but is almost 70.
Steve Kagen: Rep WI-8, Ranking: 3, Freshman.
Wisconsin Republicans
Scott McCallum: Former Gov, Ranking: 4, Served 23 months as Governor.
Tommy Thompson: Former Gov, Ranking: 6, One of the most experienced Republicans alive, and may be able to deliver Wisconsin.
Paul Ryan: Rep WI-1, Ranking: 6, Only 38, but has 10 years in Congress.
Jim Sensenbrenner: Rep WI-5, Ranking: 5, 30 years in Congress.
Tom Petri: Rep WI-6, Ranking: 5, see above.
Jim Doyle: Gov, Ranking: 4, Has been a mediocre Gov.
Herb Kohl: Sen, Ranking; 3, Too old.
Russ Feingold: Sen, Ranking: 5, Loved by the base may hurt with the center.
Tammy Baldwin: Rep WI-2, Ranking: 5, Could help with base and Clinton supporters.
Ron Kind: Rep Wi-3, Ranking: 5, One of several young Wisconsin Reps.
Gwen Moore: Rep WI-4, Ranking: 3, Only 4 years in Congress.
Dave Obey: Rep WI-7, Ranking: 4, Almost 40 years in congress, but is almost 70.
Steve Kagen: Rep WI-8, Ranking: 3, Freshman.
Wisconsin Republicans
Scott McCallum: Former Gov, Ranking: 4, Served 23 months as Governor.
Tommy Thompson: Former Gov, Ranking: 6, One of the most experienced Republicans alive, and may be able to deliver Wisconsin.
Paul Ryan: Rep WI-1, Ranking: 6, Only 38, but has 10 years in Congress.
Jim Sensenbrenner: Rep WI-5, Ranking: 5, 30 years in Congress.
Tom Petri: Rep WI-6, Ranking: 5, see above.
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